This Remarkable Scoring Streak Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.