Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The average count of per-day murders each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that homicide data may not point to improved national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen over these months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for estimating the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was also problematic because it might obscure days when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.