Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
